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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.