The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a high-stakes journey to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. This marks the first in-person meeting between the two leaders following an extended period of rising strains and heated rhetoric.
Topics for Talks
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, security, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are expected to be top on the agenda when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.
A History of Tensions
Although the two men were polite in a phone call after a January US military operation, Petro has subsequently stated he feels there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting follows an extended period of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has repeatedly criticised repeated US strikes on alleged drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as stating prior to the White House meeting.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's government of not doing enough to halt the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.
But, the hostility seemed to dissipate after a "polite" phone call between the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Mediating Role
According to diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relations to get better."
Regional Stability and the ELN
Ahead of the visit, officials from Bogotá stated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
Much of that border is controlled of the ELN. This armed faction, established in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and illegal mining in frontier regions and allegedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US companies engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts note that the ELN has the potential to disrupt economic ambitions by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously done in Colombia.
Drug War Collaboration
An similarly urgent matter for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest producer of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US security agencies following Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling drug trafficking. It has also enacted restrictions on Colombian officials, encompassing the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to cut off Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite several issues for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."
But for Petro, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the outcome of the meeting could impact the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable situation," noted a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome undermines opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
